To Be a Successful Stock Trader, Define Your Objectives in These 8 Categories
The following is adapted form Automated Stock Trading Systems.
When
I ask anyone who wants to invest what their objective is, the first answer they
all give is, “I want to make as much money as possible with the lowest risk
possible.”
That’s
what everybody wants, and frankly, it’s a terrible answer. It’s vague and
impossible to measure. Plus, everyone has a different idea of what constitutes
risk.
Entering
stock trading with an objective like that is like taking a road trip without a
map. Your objectives are a GPS that will guide your strategy and decisions as a
trader. The more specific and clear you are, the better.
In
order to attain your personal vision of success as a trader, define your
objectives in the following eight categories.
#1: Personal Objectives
Defining
your personal objectives as a trader means answering questions around how you
would define your perfect life as a trader, looking at your personal situation
and asking what you really want.
What
is your reason for trading? Is it for wealth accumulation? Monthly cash flow?
Or do you have some other objective?
Many
people have less obvious objectives that can actually be bad for their trading
success. For example, they may want to be in a high-paced environment. They may
live a boring life and want some excitement. They may crave the high of winning
at a game.
These
approaches can be very dangerous. Such traders will take position sizes that
are too large, and if the market turns against them, it can wipe out their
trading account. This is not a game: these are your finances, and your
motivations for how you handle them need to be well understood and managed.
#2: Psychological Objectives
How
do you want to feel during trading? The answer will be different for everybody,
but it should be defined because you need to determine the mental state that
guarantees you do not override your systems.
There
can be no second-guessing, no hesitation or doubt about your positions, no
fear, no insecurity—nor too much excitement, either. If you’re too excited,
that means you’re making too much profit, which means you’re taking too much
risk. When you’re risking too much, when the market turns down, that excitement
turns into fear, which will cause you to make emotional decisions.
One
of the beliefs of top traders is that trading should be kind of boring. If you
approach it as boring, then you can execute your trading systems flawlessly
because you are not emotionally attached to any trade.
#3: Risk Tolerance Objectives
What
is the average drawdown you can handle easily in live trading? Without
exception, every single trader I know overestimates this number. Experience has
taught me that 99 percent of all traders should cut their acceptable drawdown
estimate in half because otherwise, they’ll chicken out when they get close to
those numbers.
Also
think about the maximum drawdown you can handle in live trading without
suspending the system. At times your system will be hit harder than normal, and
that’s when you may be due for an upward move. But if the maximum drawdown is
larger than expected, that’s also when most people suspend and throw in the
towel. You need to be able to trade within these drawdowns without any second
thoughts that could lead you to suspend trading the system.
Then
there is the question of the duration of the drawdown. How long can you
tolerate being underwater and not making money? After the 2000–2003 bear market
it was seven years before the S&P 500 got back to where it had been and
began making money. If you can’t handle a long drawdown duration, you need a
system with a high trade frequency.
#4: Return and Profit Objectives
This
is where everybody wants to start! They want to make 100 percent return per
year, but they don’t understand that they are going to have to risk the bank to
do so. Return and risk are always in line. If you want a high return, you must
be able to handle a high risk.
I
have people who say, “Okay, I get that. I want at least 30 or 40 percent
return, but I can’t handle more than a 4 percent drop in my accounts.” I tell
them they simply can’t achieve that in the long term. They might achieve it in
an over-optimized backtest, but they’re going to exceed that drawdown in live
trading and then chicken out.
The
more you are willing and psychologically able to risk, the higher your returns
can be if your system has a significant edge. But the risk has to be in line
with what you are comfortable with. You have to understand that you need those
drawdowns because you are risking money. If you’re not able to risk money, just
go to cash and get zero percent.
#5: Style Objectives
There
are basically two styles: trend following, and mean reversion or counter-trend.
In the trend-following style, we follow trends, preferably of a long duration,
sticking with it until the trend bends. The longer the trend duration, the
better the profits.
The
issue with trend following is you have to withstand some pretty large
drawdowns, and it only makes money 30 or 40 percent of the time, when the
markets are actually trending. Otherwise the markets are sideways. Most of the
time the trend following systems don’t do that well until there is a trend, and
then they make big money.
The
mean reversion style is generally a short-duration trading style. You buy a
stock that has been overbought or oversold with the expectation that it will
revert to its statistical mean. You hold positions only for a few days, and the
expected profit on each trade is quite small. That means you must have a high
trade frequency to make big returns.
Someone
who is impatient probably will prefer mean reversion, because there’s a higher
win rate and more action. Other people prefer the quiet approach of trend
following.
The
best of both worlds is when you combine both styles, exponentially increasing
your compound annual growth rate while reducing your drawdowns.
#6: Directional Objectives
We
can trade both long and short. Long trading is speculating on an upward moving
market, short trading on a down market. Based on backtest data samples, the
market clearly has a long bias; that is, it has risen 8 percent per year, on
average, over the last twenty-four years.
If
you are trading inside an IRA account, your directional objectives are limited
by regulations that don’t allow short-selling of stocks in those accounts. I
also know traders who don’t like to short because they feel it is unpatriotic
to bet on a company’s stock moving down. That doesn’t bother me, but if that’s
a value you have, that’s fine.
More
broadly, some people are uncomfortable with shorting because the risk of loss
is theoretically unlimited. Here’s what I mean:
Let’s
say you enter a long trade of 1,000 shares in a stock at $10, and the next day
the stock opens at zero. You have lost your entire investment of $10,000.
Now
let’s say that instead of buying long, you shorted 1,000 shares of that stock
at $10. You are betting the stock will drop from $10 to $8, and you’ll make the
difference—$2,000. Instead, it opens tomorrow at $30. You have to cover your
position. You’re not out $2,000; you’re out $20,000. This level of risk is
unacceptable to many people.
#7: Timeframe Objectives
How
do you feel about overnight market exposure? If you are worried about your
positions after the close of the market or during the weekend, then overnight
trading might not be for you. You may prefer day trading, where you close out
all your positions at the end of every day to avoid overnight risk.
Do
you want to grab fast profits? Or do you say, “I like long-term positions
because I think there’s too much noise in the markets—I think I need to give
the market room to move and be more patient”?
As
with the style and directional objectives, if you are comfortable combining
short and long time frames, you will improve your results.
#8: Operational Objectives
How do you want to trade? Specifically, when do you want to enter your trades?
How do you want to trade? Specifically, when do you want to enter your trades?
Do
you only enter them once, before the market opens, and then don’t look at them
after that? Do you want to watch them carefully and be glued to the screen the
whole day?
Do
you want to enter them manually or use an automated platform?
There
are many options that will influence your day-to-day operations and thus the
trading systems you design.
Build Your Ideal Trading System
Everyone
has a different picture of what “success” looks like in trading. By defining
your objectives, you can understand what your personal picture of success looks
like and build the trading system that will get you there.
You
won’t “make as much money as possible with the lowest risk possible,” but
you’ll get something better: your ideal life as a trader.
For more advice on creating a trading strategy that
works for you, you can find Automated Stock Trading Systems on Amazon.
Laurens Bensdorp is an
expert at combining multiple non-correlating trading strategies to achieve a
high risk-adjusted return regardless of what the market does. He shares that
knowledge with a group of brilliant and dedicated students in the exclusive
Elite Mentoring Program that’s part of his Trading Mastery School, of which he
is the founder and CEO. What Laurens has found is that teaching has helped him
exponentially grow his skills as a trader. Author of the bestselling book The
30-Minute Stock Trader, Laurens has lived in eleven different countries and
travels the world as he pleases. He currently resides in Spain with his beloved
wife and children.
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